“We are grateful to the parties for showing that they have the appetite for a deal. But now the hardest part begins, ”Yalchin Rafiyev, COP29 Lead Negotiator cautions.
By Marco Lopez
20 November 2024
The G20’s failure to directly address fossil fuel reduction in its statement following its recent Rio Summit has dealt a significant blow to the ongoing COP29 negotiations in Baku, Azerbaijan. Negotiators must now work tirelessly to salvage a new deal to scale up funding for loss and damage and accelerate clean energy goals.
The world’s biggest fossil fuel emitters failed to follow up on the COP28 pledge of “transitioning away from fossil fuels” as evidenced by the statement released following the G20 leaders meeting in Rio, Brazil, yesterday.
The statement says countries “welcome and fully subscribe to the ambitious and balanced outcome of the COP28” – particularly speaking to the UAE Consensus.
While some are cautiously optimistic about the G20 communique, others found the statement vague on climate finance due to its failure to explicitly mention the need to transition away from fossil fuels.
Simon Stiell, UNFCCC’s Executive Secretary said the G20 leaders sent a clear message, that a new finance goal is in the best interest of every country.
“The bottom line is, we’re a long way from halving global emission this decade, so progress at COP29 is absolutely essential, and we must help countries to pick up the pace over this final week,” Stiell cautioned.
UN Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres was present at the G20 leaders meeting in Rio. He called on leaders to instruct their ministers and negotiators to agree on a new ambitious climate finance goal at COP29.
“Failure [in Baku] is not an option,” Guterres said, “It might compromise the ambition in the preparation of the new national climate action plans, with potentially devastating impact as irreversible tipping points are getting closer.”
For Small Island Development States (SIDS) across the Caribbean and the world – reaching these tipping points – and breaching the 1.5°C threshold would result in dire climate impacts. Averting these impacts requires transitioning away from fossil fuel and rolling out climate finance to the most vulnerable nations in the crosshairs of climate impact.
In comments made at an NDC Partnership event , Stiell touted the rise of the clean energy economy as a “juggernaut” that will bring about significant benefits.
“Money talks, and as we enter the second quarter of this century, it’s saying loud and clear: there’s no stopping the clean energy juggernaut, and the vast benefits it brings: stronger growth, more jobs, less pollution and inflation, cheaper and cleaner energy. The list of benefits goes on,” Stiell said.
To emphasise the economic incentives driving countries to enhance their climate commitments, the UNFCCC Executive Secretary further stated, “That’s why we’ve seen two G20 countries – the UK and Brazil – signal clearly at the COP they plan to ramp up climate action in their NDCs 3.0 – because it’s 100% in their economic interests to do so. But – and it’s a big but – right now these vast benefits are only achievable for some. Our job is to make them achievable for all. To ensure every country can deliver a bold new national climate plan, covering all greenhouse gases and all sectors, aligned with the science of keeping 1.5 degrees within reach.”
The COP29 host country, Azerbaijan, is set to publish draft texts from negotiations that have taken place since last Monday as parties push to agree on new goals, chief among those, a new deal on climate finance.
COP29 lead negotiator, Yalchin Rafiyez during a press conference this week explained, “Our team is now consolidating views to present a set of balanced first set of presidency text. This will include New Collective Quantified Goal, the Just Transition Work Program, Mitigation Work Program, Global Goal on Adaptation, and the UAE Diagloue.”
Outstanding items have been handed over to political ministers to help get the agreements across the line. This step entails refining the language of the draft texts into a final document that can be adopted by consensus by the end of the summit.
Rafiyez also mentioned that finalizing this draft text will be an important step in advancing the process. The texts are set to be released on Thursday morning.
“They must be considered as a package that contains options to address the key concerns of all groups. There are issues, where we will need parties to continue working together to find common ground and deliver a balanced outcome,” Rafiyez added.
The previous climate finance goal to provide $100 billion to climate-vulnerable states expires in 2025 – and for the most part- has not been met by contributing parties. Experts estimate that the new goal needs to be $1 trillion annually by 2030.
On carbon markets, the COP29 talks began with an early deal on some of the quality standards that would govern a global market for carbon credits. While there is still much to be agreed on, if fully adopted, it is expected that an UN-backed global carbon credit market could fund billions of dollars of projects to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
With the final hours of COP29 looming, the fate of our planet hangs in the balance. A consensus on these essential goals is imperative, but the road to agreement is fraught with challenges, including conflicting national priorities, uneven climate commitments, and the intricate negotiations required to bridge these divides.
